The Green, Butler, and Summit Fires continue to spread in far-Northern California. We look at today’s events on each fire, and at the Neil Creek, Demming, and Elk Fires, in Southern Oregon.
Today’s Livestream
Situation Status
Hot weather has settled in over much of NorCal, under a ridge of high atmospheric pressure. This is allowing smoke to build up over the fire areas, shading the fires, which lowers surface temperatures and keeps the fires from ‘breathing’ very well. Often, fires are less prone to explosive growth when the atmosphere is ‘stagnant’ under high pressure. However, hotter temperatures in the Valley can enhance downsloping night winds, especially if the high country areas like the Modoc Plateau or Upper Feather River are a lot cooler than the Valley. These winds may pose a concern on the Green Fire.
Green Fire
The Green Fire made a run yesterday afternoon when afternoon winds pushed the west flank of the fire up an aligned drainage. The fire was largely calm today, as the inversion never really lifted enough for fire to build any momentum. Also, the fire never really came into alignment in the bottom of topographic features it could run up onto. It is unclear if the slowing of fire spread will allow firefighters enough time to complete building dozer and hand lines between Fenders Ferry Road and Ripgut Creek. Even if they complete the line, it is not a sure bet they’ll be able to fire it to a deep enough depth to contain the fire coming up the hill out of Ripgut Creek.
Per a local resident, large rock outcroppings on the ridge between FFR and Ripgut Creek disrupted access for dozers to the middle part of the ridge. If they can’t figure this out, they’ll have to build 2.5 miles of handline between the two areas dozers have been able to access. The fire is taking its time, with pulses of fire activity across the landscape, regulated by aligned topography and weather.
Butler Fire
The Butler Fire ran out of Lewis Creek and crossed the handline between Orleans Mountain and Nordheimer Campground overnight (?) Today it made headfire runs out of Hammel Creek with significant smoke visible on webcams far to the west. The smoke from the Butler Fire was around Paynes Creek, in Tehama County, at broadcast time, and smoke is expected to reach Chico overnight. The fire’s smoke is shading the ground below, and could affect burning conditions as far away as the Green Fire. Yesterday, locals successfully completed burns on tribal lands and at Butler Flat to improve the defensibly of structures there when the fire arrives.
Summit Fire
The Summit Fire hasn’t spread much in past 2 days. It is surrounded to the south with natural rock barriers, and some work appears to be underway to establish a handline in the stringers between rock scree fields, there. The fire maps show a potential indirect handline on the next ridge to the north of the fire, also underway. We talked about concerns about the fire’s potential impact on Scott Valley and private timberland, and the somewhat related topic of the neighboring forestlands being part of a forest carbon offset project. Here is an AI summary of what I said about trying to get fire back into the private timberlands, here.
Discussion about using Large-Scale Prescribed Fire Between Scott Valley and the Wilderness
Zeke discussed several challenges in managing fire between Scott Valley and the wilderness:
- Private timberland landowners face huge potential fines if a prescribed burn escapes and burns National Forest land.
- The elevation difference between Scott Valley (3,000 feet) and the fire area (7,000 feet) makes it difficult to find the right weather window for burning.
- Current weather conditions aren’t conducive to prescribed burning at the higher elevations – maximum temperatures aren’t high enough and relative humidity is too high.
- There’s political and practical hesitation to let fires burn or conduct large-scale prescribed burns near populated areas.
- The private timberland is overstocked with small trees and beetle-killed trees, making it a fire hazard.
Zeke’s key point was that while letting fires burn or conducting prescribed burns seems simple, it’s actually extremely complicated. He believes fire will eventually come to the area, and it’s better to have a lightning-started wildfire burn the area from the top down rather than an uncontrolled fire starting from a human ignition at the bottom and burning uphill with higher severity.
Neal Creek Fire and Deming Fire
- The Neal Creek fire started last night, initially estimated at 250 acres but mapped at 150 acres.
- The Demming fire is also mentioned, with initial estimates of 350 acres but later revised.
Elk Fire and Fire History Interpretation
- The Elk fire is described as a perfect example of fire alignment, with an ignition on a SW facing slope running in a narrow band, downwind.
- The fire’s behavior is compared to previous fires in the area, with a history of strong southwest winds.
- The importance of understanding fire history for fire management is emphasized.