Pickett Fire near Calistoga – 8/21/2025

Summary of Livestream

The livestream discussed the Pickett Fire in Napa County, which started around 3:20 PM and is rapidly spreading up the mountains to the north of Calisoga, California. The fire, fueled by dry conditions and upslope winds, had already burned over 1,200 acres by 6pm, and was expected to grow. Firefighters are using air tankers and dozers to contain the blaze, but the terrain and smoke conditions are challenging.

The Livestream wanders into adjacent topics, including the abundant fire history of California’s Wine Country, and the challenges of rebuilding in fire-prone areas, using the Tubbs Fire in Sonoma Count as an example. Zekeadvocates for smarter redevelopment, suggesting alternatives like parks instead of houses in high-risk zones. Lunder highlights the bureaucratic and political obstacles to achieving wildfire resilience and the need for radical vision. He also covers the current fire situation, detailing the fire’s progression, resource allocation, and the impact of night-dropping helicopters. Lunder emphasizes the importance of public education and support for solutions which address the root causes of wildfire losses – too many assets placed in harm’s way.

Geographical Context and Historical Fires

• Zeke Lunder provides a geographical context, showing Calistoga in Napa County and the surrounding areas.
• The Glass Fire in 2020 burned a significant area, on both sides of Napa Valley. The Pickett Fire is now reburning the 2020 Glass Fire area.

Fire Behavior and Air Tanker Operations

• Zeke Lunder explains the fire behavior, focusing on the ridge systems and the challenges of stopping a headward run of the fire.
• The fire is running away from populated areas, which is beneficial for firefighters.
• Air tankers are being used to paint retardant on the ridge, but their effectiveness is limited due to lack of firefighters on the ground.
• The fire is burning in fine fuels, which are more susceptible to air tanker operations, but the smoke is limiting access of airplanes to the head and left flank of the fire.

Historical Fire Patterns and Local Knowledge

• Zeke Lunder discusses the historical fire patterns in the area, including the Hanley Fire in 1964 and the Tubbs Fire in 2017.
• The Hanley fire was similar to the Tubbs Fire, both starting in the bottom of Napa Valley near Calistoga and running both west and east.
• The Sonoma/Lake/Napa area has a robust fire history, with many fires burning in the last century due to the dry, hot, and windy conditions.
• Local knowledge is crucial for firefighting.
• Some dozer operators are using iPads to navigate previous dozer lines and understand the terrain.

Fire Prediction and Fire Season Tools

• Zeke Lunder talks about the tools used to predict fire season, including the GACCs (geographic area coordination centers) and their scientific tools.
• The ERC fire hazard chart shows the current conditions, with the blue line indicating this year’s conditions, the red line maximum ever, and the gray line since 2000.
• The current conditions are below average (moister) for fuel dryness, which affects the fire’s potential to burn explosively.
• The fire’s potential is influenced by the overall moisture of the live and dead vegetation, which can affect how well fires burn.

Fire Perimeter and Aircraft Operations

• Zeke Lunder discusses the fire perimeter and the aircraft operations, including the S2s and C130s dropping retardant.
• The aircraft are facing challenges with the terrain and the smoke, making it difficult to get in under the smoke to paint retardant.
• The fire is running up the hill, and the aircraft are trying to box it in along the bottom of the ridge.
• The fire’s movement is influenced by the terrain and the prevailing winds, which are currently southwesterly.

Fire Spread and Potential Threats

• Zeke Lunder discusses the potential for the fire to spread and the threats to nearby areas, including Middletown and Hidden Valley Lake.
• The fire is not currently a threat to Middletown due to the prevailing winds and the fire’s movement up the mountain.
• The fire is burning in less populated areas, which allows it to spread without immediate threat to large populations.
• Zeke says the fire is not currently a threat to Calistoga, and thinks likelihood of the fire moving across Napa Valley to the west is low.

Fire Behavior and Smoke Dynamics

• Zeke Lunder explains plume-dominated fire behavior and the smoke dynamics, including how smoke columns can collapse and the impact of the smoke on firefighting operations.

Fire Prevention, Home Hardening, Community Preparedness

• Zeke Lunder discusses the importance of fire prevention and home hardening, including cutting brush and building houses out of materials that don’t burn.
• The traditional California architecture, with exposed wood and vegetation right up against the house, is not fire-safe.
• Home hardening includes using materials like Hardie board, concrete, and steel panels, which are more fire-resistant.

Rebuilding in Fire-Prone Areas

• Zeke Lunder discusses the upcoming episode of the Lookout’s Danger in Plain Sight series, focusing on Pacific Palisades and the need to consider radically different rebuilding methods.
• He highlights the issue of rebuilding in fire-prone areas, using an example neighborhood in the Fountaingrove area destroyed by the 2017 Tubbs Fire in Sonoma.
• Zeke emphasizes the historical imagery from Google Earth to show the destruction caused by the Tubbs Fire in 2018.
• He suggests alternative redevelopment plans, such as creating parks or soccer fields instead of rebuilding houses in the same location (too late, homes are already rebuilt).

Challenges of Achieving Wildfire Resilience

• Zeke talks about the bureaucratic and political obstacles to achieving wildfire resilience.
• He compares the situation of trying to fire-proof high hazard locations after homes are build to trying to implement bike paths in car-centric suburbs, highlighting the difficulty and expense.
• Zeke mentions the importance of public support and donations to fund his channel, which allows him to speak freely about these issues without concern about repercussions or censorship from sponsors.

Fire Behavior and Night Dropping Helicopters

• Zeke describes the role of night dropping helicopters in controlling fires.
• He explains the significant impact of (new) night dropping helicopters on fire behavior, especially in areas with fine fuels like grass and brush.
• Zeke discusses the topography and wind patterns in the area.

Resource Competition and Fire Hazard Awareness

• Zeke talks about the competition for resources during multiple fire incidents.
• He emphasizes the importance of fire hazard awareness to prevent multiple fire starts.
• Zeke mentions that people should carefully consider the risks of certain outdoor activities, for example, flying drones, during high-hazard fire weather conditions, and the need to limit the use of other equipment that could potentially start fires.
• He highlights the critical period of high fire hazard and the need for awareness to prevent unnecessary fire starts.

Technical Solutions and Home Hardening

• Zeke discusses the role of technical solutions like AI-powered fire detection and the effectiveness or lack thereof of these investments.
• He suggests that many investments in wildfire tech could be better spent on home hardening measures like vent screens and ember-resistant siding.
• He encourages viewers to support his channel and the Lookout website for more information on fire safety and home hardening.

Fire Perimeter and Resource Allocation

• Zeke provides an update on the fire perimeter and resource allocation.
• He mentions the use of Cal Topo for mapping and the importance of understanding fire behavior in different areas.

Viewer Engagement and Support

• Zeke engages with viewers, answering questions and providing updates on the fire situation.
• He mentions the importance of viewer support and donations to fund his channel.
• Zeke highlights the role of viewers in providing valuable insights and information.
• He encourages viewers to share the series and support the Lookout website for more fire safety information.