This Lookout Livestream reviews recent behavior of the Cottonwood Fire in Utah—its big run up Beaver River through Copes Basin and Eagle Point Resort, current lull due to higher humidity, and potential for major spread in the coming days/weeks. We also use predictive fire spread modeling tools from the Pyregence Project to evaluate potential long-term outcomes from the fire, and take a critical look at the efficacy of these sorts of tools.
Summary
- The Cottonwood Fire in Utah is currently the largest among several fires in the state, with significant growth driven by terrain and wind, especially up Beaver River and through Eagle Point Resort.
- Recent weather changes (higher humidity, cooler temps) have temporarily subdued fire activity, but the fire is not out and remains a threat.
- Predictive modeling (using PyreCast) suggests slow spread in the short term, but a major run is possible Friday/Saturday due to forecasted dry, windy conditions and a red flag warning.
- Fire is expected to move north into the next drainage (North Creek), with potential for rapid spread if critical weather aligns.
- Satellite heat data can be misleading; actual fire perimeters may differ from what is shown on public maps.
- Suppression is extremely difficult in areas with heavy dead timber (snags) from previous burns; direct attack is often not possible, and retardant is less effective in dense, downed fuels.
- Fire has already burned through Copes Basin, Eagle Point Resort, and other structures; more structures are at risk if the fire spreads during critical weather.
- Previous burn scars may slow but not stop the fire; firefighting in these areas is dangerous and often ineffective.
- Large fire growth (potentially up to over 200,000 acres) is possible due to continuous fuels and challenging terrain; control is unlikely until significant rain arrives.
- Criticism of firefighting efforts is common, but extreme conditions and landscape limitations often make suppression impossible once fires are this large.
- California fire risk is currently low due to moist fuels and mild weather, but conditions could change later in the summer.
- Resources like Watch Duty, The Lookout website, and California Weather Watch are recommended for ongoing updates and education.