Colorado wildfires see a welcome lull after days of explosive growth, with fire behavior moderating across the state and in neighboring regions. In this evening’s briefing, fire analyst and mapping specialist Zeke Lunder walks through a landscape that is still dangerous, but clearly less volatile than it has been during the last three broadcasts. High pressure is repositioning, winds have settled down, a bit of moisture is sneaking into the Rockies, and the huge smoke plumes and dramatic perimeter jumps of recent days have largely given way to slower, more patchy spread. The story tonight is not that the fires are over, but that they are finally catching their breath.
Aspen Acres Fire
The Aspen Acres Fire has been the headline blaze of recent days, driven by powerful winds across critically dry fuels and generating the kind of long, streaming smoke plumes that signal fast, wind-driven runs. Today’s mapping tells a different story. Comparing last night’s perimeter, mapped around late evening, with the overnight and afternoon updates, Zeke shows a front that pushed toward Rye and Colorado City but then largely stalled. This afternoon’s mapping indicates only modest spread in the area that has been the greatest concern along the 165 corridor near Colorado City and Rye. Homes were still threatened and some were caught in the path, but local reports from Colorado City suggest that firefighters were largely successful in holding the line around many structures. Today is the first day on this fire which has not seen aggressive, wind-driven expansion of the fire.
On the west side of the fire, up along Highway 165 and toward Lake Isabel and Bishop Castle, the fire is well-entrenched in heavy, contiguous conifer stands where direct attack is extremely difficult. There is potential that coming changes in the winds, from westerlies to periods of east winds, may allow the fire to make slope-driven runs back to the west. Around Lake Isabel and Bishop Castle, mapping anomalies and lack of ground truth make it hard to say exactly what has burned, but the absence of big new runs and the lack of spread toward Pueblo and the I‑25 corridor for several days are good news. Aspen Acres was markedly subdued, today, even if the fire is far from contained.
Willow Fire
West of Leadville, the Willow Fire continues to smolder, creep, and spot it’s way through thick, high-elevation conifer forests, but it too had a calmer day. Yesterday’s strong downhill run toward the Leadville Fish Hatchery underscored the potential danger this fire can present when conditions align, but today, those dramatic moves were absent.
The newest perimeter shows relatively little growth on the rocky west edge, where the fire has largely burned up into terrain that naturally checks its spread. A scattering of hot spots still dots much of the perimeter. Direct attack of the fire is still constrained by heavy fuels and steep slopes, and much of what the fire will do in the coming days and weeks will depend on whether forecasts of incoming moisture prove true and deliver real rain, or just lightning and gusty outflows. But for now, the Willow Fire requires patience and vigilance.
Gold Mountain Fire
In the rugged “Switzerland of America” landscape near Ouray, the Gold Mountain Fire is increasingly boxed in by its geography. Zeke emphasizes that regardless of the official containment percentage, much of this fire is effectively hemmed in by barren alpine ridges, cliffs, and high basins, which form a natural barrier around the southern half of the fire.
Recent mapping shows limited new spread today for most sectors of the fire. Some new growth on the maps likely reflects limited firing operations, as crews use indirect tactics to strengthen lines where they cannot safely engage the main fire head-on. The fire continues to back slowly downhill into more accessible terrain and to run uphill in places where slope and fuels align, but those runs are shorter and less explosive than they were at the height of the wind event. Incident planners are using the lull to scout control options farther out, especially to protect scattered cabins, lodges, and camps including Cimmeron Mountain Lodge, and other developments to the NE, between the fire and US Route 50. Preparatory work such as setting up sprinklers, improving defensible space, and pre-wrapping historic structures is more realistic on a day when the fire is not surging miles at a time. Compared to the last three broadcasts, Gold Mountain looks more like a slow-moving puzzle framed by rock than an immediate runaway threat.
Ferris Fire
Along the Dolores River Canyon, in teh SW corner of the state, the Ferris Fire remains complex. Yesterday, the fire spotted across the river, and raced upslope toward private lands to the west of the fire. It has been chewing through thousands of acres of logging slash left unburned after recent forest restoration thinning operations. That combination of kiln-dried ‘red slash’ fuels and critical weather conditions has produced intense burning and sustained growth on the NW side of the fire. Today, the fire continued to spread to the north, northwest, and west, but with lower winds, the pace slackened, somewhat.
The main dynamic now is along the Dolores Canyon Rim and out toward private lands to the west. Fire has burned up to the public–private boundary in some places, and crews have been using firing operations along dozer lines, powerline easements, and roads to keep the main fire on public land. Instead of laying fire all the way out to distant control features in one push, teams are lighting carefully in segments, then pausing to see how the main fire advances before extending their work. This stepwise approach keeps them from having miles of new, high-intensity edge to manage at once.
The infrared and progression maps reveal a long, odd-looking finger of fire that has marched northward over several days, creating a nagging problem that must eventually be tied in to the rest of the perimeter. Firing operations are ongoing to keep ahead of the fire’s growth to the NW (in the slash areas). The decision to keep the incident under a local Type 3 team, at least for now, reflects both the relative remoteness of the fire and the Dolores Ranger District’s deep local experience and comfort with managing complex wildfire operations with limited outside support. While the Ferris Fire still has room to run and big strategic questions remain about where to anchor it on the canyon’s far side, today’s burning appears to have been within the comfort zone of the team which is managing the incident.
Babylon Fire
In southern Utah’s intricate canyon country, the Babylon Fire offers another example of a blaze that is still very much alive but less aggressive. A patchwork of recent burn scars has taken some of the energy out of its advance. Where the fire has run into older burns, it has slowed, feeding on reduced fuels instead of continuous stands of timber or brush. In previous briefings, Zeke emphasized how hard it is to coordinate suppression in this kind of vast, roadless, partially wilderness landscape; that has not changed. What changed today was the winds.
Today’s heat-detection imagery shows pockets of active burning lingering along parts of the perimeter, but in many quadrants of the fire, the fire has “run out of available fuel” in many directions. Smoke production is down, and there is no clear indication of big, fresh runs. The result is a quieter map that nonetheless hides plenty of potential in unburned islands and connected fuels.
Pocket Fire
South of Flagstaff, the Pocket Fire continues to burn, mainly in areas which are inaccessible. Much of the fire is within relatively recent burn scars where the ponderosa pine forests have survived previous fires. From the start, Zeke has called this a fire that, ecologically speaking, might end up being “good fire” if it can be kept at reasonable intensity and away from vulnerable infrastructure. Over the course of the incident, crews have relied heavily on firing operations to build security around the northern and western flanks, and there were moments when the maps suggested that those burns might be getting ahead of them. Today’s mapping, however, indicates that some apparent jumps were likely just mapping errors.
Satellite imagery appears to show that large areas within the perimeter remain green, a visible reminder that a burned polygon on a map does not mean a moonscape on the ground. Many trees have survived, and the forest that makes it through this event will be more resilient to future fires. That perspective shapes the tone of tonight’s coverage. Rather than treating the Pocket Fire as an unmitigated disaster, Zeke uses it to illustrate how frequent, moderate fire can help restore a fire-adapted ecosystem. For residents of places like Sedona and other forested towns, he argues, these fires are a reminder that fire is a native of this country, and that we squat in fire’s house at our own peril – we should not be surprised when it pays us a visit – rather, we should live with the constant knowledge that it is coming, and conduct our affairs accordingly.
Weather shift and regional outlook
Underlying the moderation in fire behavior across these incidents is a subtle but important change in the weather pattern. High pressure that previously sat farther east has shifted west, altering wind patterns and allowing a bit more mid-level moisture to creep into Arizona and Colorado. The result is less wind. Over the past week, satellite imagery repeatedly showed long, dense smoke plumes streaking away from large, wind-driven runs. Today, those plumes are shorter and less dramatic. Satellite heat signatures that once glowed intensely across wide fronts are now more broken and muted.
Fire weather forecasts for southeastern Colorado call for a “slow moistening of the atmosphere” and increasing chances of daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms through midweek. This is not a promise of soaking rains; widespread heavy precipitation is unlikely, and low-level moisture in the high country will remain limited. Instead, the main operational concerns are gusty outflow winds and lightning, both of which can still drive dangerous fire behavior or ignite new starts. Flash flood risk over recent burn scars will also climb with any localized downpours. Later in the week, the pattern is expected to dry and warm again, with temperatures rising above seasonal norms but with generally weaker winds than those that have dominated the last several days.
For now, this blend of modest moisture, cloud shading, and reduced winds has dialed back the large, wind-propelled runs that defined the previous week. Aspen Acres is no longer racing toward Pueblo. Willow is slowly chunking along. Gold Mountain is edging forward into cooler and moister high-elevation areas. Ferris is being steered along canyon rims in a more deliberate fashion. Babylon is bumping into natural fuel limits. Pocket is largely smoldering inside its scarred but still-living forest. It is a fragile equilibrium, easily upset by a poorly timed thunderstorm or a hot, dry wind shift, but it is still a welcome break.
Community responsibility and the future of fire
As the maps and models hint at a slight reprieve, Zeke turns to a recurring theme that has grown sharper in each broadcast: communities and individuals cannot outsource all responsibility for living with fire. The calmer behavior today gives people space to think beyond the immediate flames and smoke. In this Independence Day, he points to a Aspen Acres area Facebook call for residents with skid-steers and mini-excavators to help put in fire breaks, praising it as a glimpse of the future: neighbors learning equipment skills, creating defensible space, and building lines rather than waiting passively for distant resources to arrive.
He argues that in many fire-prone areas, particularly those without the political clout or wealth of high-profile communities, help may be delayed or limited when multiple large fires are burning. In that world, self-reliance and mutual aid become essential. Zeke extends the idea to what he calls “guerrilla forestry”: individuals learning what a healthy forest structure looks like, and then quietly and carefully tending their favorite forested places, rather than waiting for overextended federal agencies will do all the work. He is careful not to encourage unsanctioned burning on public or private lands, but he is blunt that, in his view, waiting for perfect top-down solutions is not realistic.
The quieter day on the firelines does not erase the damage already done or guarantee that tomorrow will be gentle. But it does offer a clearer view of the long game. Wildfire is not leaving Colorado, Arizona, or Utah. Fires will return, sometimes with the same ferocity seen earlier this week. The theme of this briefing is that on at least this day, the fires eased off enough for firefighters to catch their breath in some places, for planners to think past tomorrow’s shift, and for communities to reflect on what living with fire really means. The smoke may thin for a moment, but the work of adapting to this landscape is just getting started.