Evening Fire Report - 1/10/2025

10pm Update – New Fire Spread Toward 405 Freeway and San Fernando Valley

After sunset today, the Palisades Fire, influenced by more north-westerly winds, has shifted towards San Fernando Valley and the 405 corridor, with significant activity in Mandeville Canyon. Firing operations were observed to secure control lines, but the fire crossed a retardant line, posing a threat to structures in Mandeville Canyon. Concerns include potential spread due to expected Santa Ana winds and the challenge of firing operations with shifting winds. Helicopter work and firefighting efforts have contained much of the fire, but new fronts require attention. Evacuations are expanding due to these new threats.

Overview of Palisades Fire and Control Strategy for NE corner – 1/10/2025 – Red shows fire perimeter at 10:20pm.

Detailed view of NE portion of Palisades Fire – 1/10/2025 – Red shows fire perimeter at 10:20pm.

The new growth tonight is in upper right. Potential strong north winds on Saturday could blow new fire area down into Brentwood area. Red shows fire perimeter at 10:20pm.

1/10/2025 Evening Fire Report – 5:30pm

Except in the NE corner, the Palisades fire has not spread significantly since the last two days and above Monte Nido, on the west end of the fire. The Franklin fire from November prevented the fire from spreading into Malibu. Today, satellite heat detections and webcams showed active areas near Topanga and Monte Nido. Firing operations were underway to secure fire lines between Topanga and San Vicente Mountain Park. The Eaton Fire showed no new urban spread. Red flag warnings and gusty Santa Ana winds were in effect, with potential for strong winds and dry conditions continuing. The Kenneth fire near Calabasas was considered contained.

Palisades Fire Overview

The fire has been active around Topanga and Monte Nido, with the most active part north of the Summit neighborhood.
Fire behavior has been subdued along the edge between Saddle Peak and Topanga Canyon Road.
Firefighters cannot declare the fire contained until all hot spots are patrolled and secured.
The Franklin fire from November has fireproofed Malibu, preventing the current fire from spreading into the area.
Planet Labs satellite imagery shows the extent of damage in Palisades Village, with some areas spared.

Satellite imagery from Planet Labs shows fire destruction in Pacific Palisades. Areas which escaped wholesale destruction are shown in yellow (lines drawn by Planet Labs)

Satellite imagery from Planet Labs shows fire destruction in Palisades Village. Areas outside red/gray image are from before the fire, and many are also burned.

Indirect Firefighting Strategy

Zeke explains the strategy of indirect firefighting, where fire lines are built in accessible areas, at some distance from the fire, to contain it.
The wind has shifted to be more out of the NW, making it crucial to hold the major ridge system as the primary control line.
Firing operations are often conducted at night to burn out areas between the fire and the fire line.
The coordination of firing operations involves significant skill and timing, with a risk associated with putting fire on the ground.

Webcam Observations and Firing Operations

Firing operations are observed on the dozer line, aiming to burn out the area between the fire and the fireline.
The complexity of large firefighting operations involves multiple moving parts and coordination with weather forecasts.
The goal is to get the fireline fired out before the fire reaches it, a critical race for firefighters.

Eaton Fire and Weather Conditions

The Eaton fire appears to be fairly quiet, with no new spread into urban areas for a few days.
The fire’s behavior in the urban areas is described as fickle, with unexpected patterns of spread.

1/8/2025 Maxar Satellite image shows widespread destruction and active burning in Altadena.

Weather Outlook

Red flag warnings are in effect due to gusty Santa Ana winds, with a Fire Weather Watch for strong winds.
The Santa Ana winds are expected to diminish tonight, but another uptick is expected Saturday evening, especially in portions of Orange County and the Inland Empire.
Light precipitation may remain off the coast, with moderate Santa Ana winds expected to peak next Tuesday.

Fire Weather Discussion

Fire Weather Planning Forecast For Southwestern California
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
414 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

…EXTREMELY LONG DURATION OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE DAY
TO DAY RELIEF…

…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES…

…MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A HIGH RISK OF ADDITIONAL RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES…

.DISCUSSION…
Winds will shift to the northwest tonight, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph
over the wind prone areas, including southwest Santa Barbara County
where a few hours of critical conditions are possible. The winds shift
back to northeast on Saturday and will strengthen Saturday Night into
Sunday when gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common over Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties. Local gusts of 50 to 70 mph are possible in some
mountains. With continued dry conditions, Red Flag Warnings are likely.
While a brief reprieve from the winds are expected Sunday Night, they
will form again Monday through Wednesday, with a peak around Tuesday of
gusts between 40 and 60 mph. With humidities plummeting to 5 to 15
percent, there is a high risk for Red Flag Warnings. Moderate confidence
in relief forming by Thursday with a 40 percent of light rain and light
winds for the end of next week.

Fire Weather Forecast for Eastern Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-Calabasas and Agoura Hills-Western San Fernando Valley-Eastern San Fernando Valley-
Including the cities of Topanga, Westlake Village, Malibu Lake, Northridge, Woodland Hills, Van Nuys, Chatsworth, Burbank, Universal City, Glendale, Sunland, and La Canada Flintridge
414 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY…

.TONIGHT…
Sky/weather………Clear. Areas of smoke.
Min temperature…..46-55 except 39-44 colder valleys.
24 hr trend……Down 6.
Max humidity……..30-50 percent.
24 hr trend……Up 24.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys………Northwest 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the evening
becoming variable 3-6 mph.
Ridges……….Northwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening
becoming variable 3-6 mph.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1.
CWR (>0.10 in)……0 percent.

.SATURDAY…
Sky/weather………Sunny. Areas of smoke.
Max temperature…..64-73.
24 hr trend……Down 4.
Min humidity……..15-20 percent.
24 hr trend……Up 6.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys………Northeast 6-12 mph early becoming 10-20 mph with gusts
to 30 mph by the afternoon.
Ridges……….Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph early becoming
15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1.
CWR (>0.10 in)……0 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT…
Sky/weather………Clear. Areas of smoke.
Min temperature…..47-56 except 40-45 colder valleys.
Max humidity……..20-40 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys………Northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the evening
becoming 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
Ridges……….Northeast 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph early becoming
25-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph.
LAL……………..1.
CWR (>0.10 in)……0 percent.

.SUNDAY…
Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..62-70.
Min humidity……..10-15 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys………Northeast 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph becoming
8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Ridges……….Northeast 25-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph becoming
10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph late in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
CWR (>0.10 in)……0 percent.