Predicting Wildfire Season

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It is wildfire season in Northern California, yet?

I get this question a lot. As of the third week in June, 2025, my answer is ‘not really’.

How can I tell? Didn’t we just have Red Flag Warnings last week? Hasn’t the grass been dry for over a month?

I need to qualify ‘fire season’. To me, fire season is when we begin to have large forest fires that burn for days, smoke out the Valley, and send people scrambling. I think I tend to have this lens because most of my career has been spent working on large campaign fires, where incident management teams are mobilized, fire camps are set up, strike teams of engines start rolling up and down the State, and all of the motel parking lots are full of fire vehicles.

We aren’t there yet. Yes, we can have some locally-significant grass fires, but until we get a little hotter and drier, or get sustained dry winds, we aren’t going to see the major mobilizations that many of us consider to be ‘fire season’.

This video shares some of the science-based tools I use to back up my subjective, and admittedly personal, take on the seasonality of wildfire.
Also, we have a new [Links] page where I shared a lot of my most-used websites.

Summary

Zeke Lunder discusses the progression and prediction of fire season across the U.S., emphasizing regional variations. Early fires start in the Southwest, with monsoonal moisture influencing fire behavior. In California, fire season peaks from July to early September, with significant lightning ignitions. Tools like MODIS satellites and GACs (Geographic Area Coordination Centers) provide real-time and predictive intelligence on fire risk. The National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC) tracks preparedness levels, currently at level three. Zeke highlights the importance of understanding fuel moisture and weather conditions, using resources like the Fire Weather Dashboard and webcam networks to monitor regional fire hazards.

Fire Season Overview and Early Season Fires

  • Zeke Lunder explains that fire season varies by location, with California currently not in the thick of it but getting close.
  • Early season fires typically start in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, with hotshot crews beginning their season in the southwest.
  • The monsoon weather pattern brings moisture and thunderstorms to the desert southwest, helping to extinguish fires.
  • The “inside slider” weather pattern can pull monsoonal moisture into California, causing dry lightning storms.

Fire Season Progression in California

  • Fire season in Northern California peaks from July through early September, with conditions mellowing by early September.
  • Late June in Northern California sees occasional big fires due to massive lightning ignitions.
  • Fuel moistures are at their seasonal lows, making conditions ripe for fires, but the peak growing season of plants like Manzanita and Ceanothus makes them less flammable.
  • Seasonal clues like the shriveled Buckeye and red poison oak indicate the end of the summer growing season and the start of fire season.

Resources for Monitoring Fire Season

  • Zeke Lunder discusses the MODIS satellite system, which detects heat signatures from fires, providing a real-time big picture of fire activity.
  • The National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC) provides preparedness levels for different regions, indicating resource availability.
  • GACCs (Geographic Area Coordination Centers) act as regional dispatch centers, each with its own website providing detailed intelligence and resources.
  • The Northern California GACC website offers a large fire map, weather information, and predictive services, including fire and fuels danger outlooks.

Predictive Services and Fire Danger Outlooks

  • The Northern California GACC in Redding hosts a Predictive Services Division with meteorologists, fire behavior analysts, and fire logistics experts.
  • The outlooks section of the GACC website provides seasonal and seven-day fire potential forecasts, which can be taken with a grain of salt.
  • The seven-day forecast provides color-coded maps indicating fire risk levels, with detailed explanations of weather conditions and fuel moisture.
  • The Fire and Fuels Danger section includes charts and graphs showing energy release components and fuel moisture levels, helping to predict fire behavior.

Fire Weather Dashboard and Webcam Network

  • The Fire Weather Dashboard provides summarized weather information useful for fire management, including temperatures, humidity, and ventilation rates.
  • The dashboard’s hourly summary helps in planning prescribed burns and predicting fire behavior.
  • The Alert California webcam network, provides real-time visuals of fuel conditions and storm tracking, aiding in fire management decisions.
  • Zeke Lunder emphasizes the importance of building a set of bookmarks to these resources to stay informed and become a community resource.

Community Education and Fire Science

  • Zeke Lunder highlights the importance of community education to reduce fear and anxiety in high fire hazard landscapes.
  • The Lookout channel aims to make fire science, landscapes, historic fires, and fire behavior accessible to viewers.
  • By understanding and using available resources, communities can better prepare for and respond to fire seasons.
  • Zeke encourages viewers to subscribe to The Lookout for more informative content on fire science and management.