Zeke Lunder discussed the Root Fire, which was taken off Mount Shasta, and its potential impact on the surrounding area. The fire, started in a clear-cut on private land, is expected to spread north towards Lake Siskiyou, driven by unstable weather conditions and strong winds. The area hasn’t had fire for over 100 years, leading to unhealthy forest conditions. Lunder also mentioned the Blue Fire in the Klamath National Forest, which has led to evacuation warnings for Siad Valley. Additionally, he highlighted the Garnet Fire’s impact on the Tea Kettle Reserve, noting the challenges of prescribed burns in the area.
Root Fire Overview and Initial Discussion
- Zeke Lunder introduces the Root Fire, which has taken off south of Mount Shasta, near the Castle Crags.
- Zeke explains the focus of the discussion, which includes fire behavior, fire science, fire politics, firefighting, smoke, and different types of fires.
- Zeke describes the current weather conditions, noting the windy and breezy nature of the day, and sets the stage for discussing the Root Fire and other fires in the area.
Geographical Context and Fire History
- Zeke provides a detailed geographical overview of the Root Fire’s location, including private and public lands, and the surrounding landscape features like Mount Shasta and the Castle Crags.
- He explains the significance of the Root Fire’s location, noting that the area hasn’t had fire for over 100 years, leading to unhealthy forest conditions.
- Zeke discusses the potential challenges of putting out the Root Fire, given the accumulated fuel and the history of fire suppression in the area.
- He outlines the expected fire behavior, including the fire’s potential to spread and the impact on nearby areas like Lake Siskiyou and Castle Lake.
Fire Behavior and Weather Conditions
- Zeke describes the fire behavior observed during the day, noting the fire’s wind-driven and slope-driven nature.
- He discusses the weather forecast, including potential lightning and unstable conditions for next two days, which could exacerbate fire behavior.
- Zeke explains the impact of atmospheric stability on fire behavior, using a rule of thumb for temperature changes with elevation to illustrate his point.
- He highlights the importance of understanding atmospheric conditions to predict fire behavior and the potential for thunderstorms to affect fire spread.
Impact of Clear Cuts and Wilderness Areas
- Zeke explains how clear cuts, which are common in the area, can facilitate fire spread due to their sunny, dry conditions and the presence of fine fuels.
- He discusses the potential for fires to spread quickly in clear cuts, especially when conditions are not mild, and the challenges of fighting fires in these areas.
- Zeke notes the lack of clear cuts in the next basin, which could mitigate fire spread, and highlights the presence of alpine fuels which could slow the fire’s spread.
- Stringers of heavy forest in steep gullies at the head of North Fork Castle Creek could help the fire spot over into the Castle Lake area.
- He emphasizes the difficulty of accessing wilderness areas with fire engines and the reliance on helicopters, which can be effective but are often limited by smoke and weather conditions.
Potential Fire Spread and Containment Challenges
- Zeke outlines the potential for the Root Fire to spread north and establish itself in the Upper North Fork of Castle Creek, driven by prevailing winds.
- He discusses the challenges of containing the fire, given the heavy fuels and the need for extensive access to fight the fire.
- Zeke highlights the potential for the fire to spread quickly in clear cuts and the importance of understanding the fire’s behavior to predict its movement.
- He emphasizes the potential for thunderstorms to create chaotic weather conditions, and for lightning to spark new fires.
- Zeke doesn’t think the fire will threaten Mt. Shasta or Dunsmuir for several days, but could eventually impact both, if weather doesn’t change, or gets more windy.
Blue Fire and Evacuation Warnings
- Zeke shifts focus to the Blue Fire, located in the Klamath National Forest, and mentions new evacuation warnings for Seiad Valley.
- He discusses the fire’s active spread towards Seiad Valley and the challenges of predicting its behavior due to potentially unstable weather conditions.
- Zeke highlights the importance of learning an area’s fire history and management history of the local landscape in understanding why fires do what they do.
- He introduces Jamie Allen, a local expert, who will provide a detailed analysis of the Blue Fire in a future broadcast.
Garnet Fire and Prescribed Burn Challenges
- Zeke discusses the Garnet Fire, which is burning into the Teakettle Reserve, and the challenges of conducting prescribed burns in the area.
- Zeke highlights Forest Service policies that prioritize fire suppression over prescribed fire and the near impossibility of executing large prescribed burns.
Fire Behavior and Containment Strategies
- Zeke discusses the fire behavior observed during the day, noting the fire’s ability to produce large columns and the impact of wind and slope on its spread.
- He explains the challenges of containing the fire, given the heavy fuels and the need for extensive access to fight the fire.
- Zeke is highly skeptical of incident management teams’ public assessments about potential control of the north end of the fire, calling them overly optimistic.
He compares their briefings to the Dixie Fire experience: “heard that story on the Dixie … every day. The team’s like, Oh yeah, it’s going all right. And I’m like, well, it was 850,000 acres yesterday, and today, it’s 890,000 acres. What was all right about that?”
Regarding the Garnet Fire team saying they’ll hold containment lines (on north end of the fire), Zeke responds: “yeah, right, you are. You’re not gonna hold the road when it’s spotting like a mile.”
He explains that teams are essentially performing: “those guys on their briefing have to, like, say, Oh yeah, it’s going good. We’re all getting along. Cal Fire and Forest Service. We’re working great together… And oh, and then the meantime, it’s just like, the fire is just like, (flips off the camera) “yeah, I’m happy that you’re all working together. I’m gonna head for Shaver Lake anyway.”
Zeke describes the messaging job of IMTs as a shit show. “They’re just they got an unwinnable job. It’s like people expect firefighters to corral a freaking tornado or hurricane.”
The Lookout’s advice: We wary of overly optimistic messages when the fire being discussed looks like it’s a volcano or nuclear bomb going off every afternoon.
Community Engagement and Future Plans
- Zeke discusses the importance of community engagement and the need for accurate information to help people prepare for potential fires.
- He highlights the challenges of providing timely and accurate information, given the dynamic nature of fire behavior and the need for careful planning.
- Zeke emphasizes the importance of understanding the local landscape and the need for careful planning to conduct successful prescribed burns.
- He outlines future plans for the broadcast, including a detailed analysis of the Blue Fire with Jamie Allen and the importance of community engagement and accurate information.