It’s Not Just Climate Change – Tinderbox Forests Burn in France

This episode of The Lookout Livestream discussed fires in France, Spain, and Eastern Oregon, highlighting the role that conifer plantations had played in fueling the extreme fire behavior currently being seen on large fires near Bordeaux.

We note the Bordeaux region’s historical land management, which includes planting over 1,000,000 acres of dense conifer forest over the past 300 years. These areas have extreme wildfire risks due to the density of the planted forests, and climate change is exacerbating fire risks. Europe is at a critical juncture in how they decide to deal with accelerating wildfire threats. Will they choose the American model of aggressive, militaristic fire suppression, or acknowledge the ecological necessity of fire, and choose a path that allows fire to play some of its natural roles on the landscape? With dense population, and severed human connections to fire, the former path seems most likely.

In Oregon, large fires continue to burn, and have consumed some areas set aside to sequester carbon as a hedge against climate change. The fires in France also threaten forest carbon banking projects. Though restoring the former peat lands in France could be a much more efficient and resilient way to safely sequester carbon, there is already talk of replanting the burned plantations.

In places where hot and dry seasonal conditions make wildfires inevitable, global financial systems, which have driven the pursuit of ‘market-driven solutions’ to the climate crisis are actually paying people to make the fire hazards (and potential climate impacts) worse.

Watch the livestream, here, or read an essay about this topic, below.

Fuel, Forests, and Fire: Why the Bordeaux Fires Aren’t “Just” Climate Change

Wildfires near Bordeaux are being widely framed as a pure “climate change story.” Headlines center on heat, drought, and a warming planet. While a hotter, drier climate absolutely widens the window for big fire days, what’s burning — and how we’ve built and managed that landscape — is at least as important as the weather.

Inside the area which is currently burning

Around Bordeaux, the recent fires are overwhelmingly fuel-driven. Climate change is the fuse; but the fuels are the gunpowder. Understanding that distinction is crucial if France wants wildfire solutions that actually work on the ground.

Here are some of the the main non–climate-related factors driving the spread and severity of these fires.

---

1. A Million Acres of Man‑Made Pine: SW France’s Landes Forest

South of Bordeaux sits one of Europe’s strangest and most flammable experiments:

• Roughly a million hectares (2.5M acres, or 3,900 square miles) of planted forest,
• The forest was established on former/drained peat bogs and wetlands,
• Dominated by a single species: maritime pine (Pinus pinaster),
• Planted extremely densely, in regular rows, for timber, pulp, and formerly, resin/turpentine production.
• Forest carbon storage is a growing business, and as financial viability of other forest products ebbs and flows, carbon banking can attract new investors to the forestry business.

Landes is not a natural forest that “just happens” to be burning in a hotter climate. It is a designed fuel bed:

• Monocrop: one species, same height, same structure.
• Exotic fuel model in this configuration.
• Tight spacing that promotes crown fire.
• Weedy understory and surface fuels filling in between stems.
• Highly resinous (sappy) trees.

When fire arrives in this kind of stand, it doesn’t see “France,” “heritage,” or “carbon credits.” It sees a continuous, vertically and horizontally connected fuel mass of resin-filled, airy trees that makes high‑intensity fire almost inevitable on the right day.

Before WWII, fires burned regularly in the area. After the war, the French government established a program to fight fires in the Landes Forest. A series of large fires burned here in 1949, and large fires also burned here in 2022. The pine forests have always been flammable; maritime pine has serotinous cones (they require heat to open and spread their seeds, suggesting that they evolved with fire).

How can climate change affect wildfire hazards?

The proximity of the Landes Forest to the coast, and a prevailing flow of cool, moist air off of the ocean, means that this area often experiences fog, especially in the summer. Major heat outbreaks/heat domes can affect the development of fog, and without the moderating influence of cool, moist air, the flammability of the region can spike.

Climate change increases the number of days under which the forests can burn, but once a fire becomes established in these forests, fuel flammability, fuel arrangement and loading are the primary driver of fire intensity.

The current fires in the Landes Forest provide a cautionary tale for other coastal regions of the world. For example, along the West Coast of the United States, many of the coastal forests within 20-30 miles of the coast are affected by a regular summertime ‘marine layer’, which inhibits large fires.  This lack of fires has allowed huge accumulations of biomass to develop, here. Farther inland, hotter and drier summer conditions have allowed for many large and damaging fires. Changes in the climate which inhibit the development of a summer marine layer (for example, radically-elevated ocean temperatures), may put these coastal regions at higher risk of large fires.

---

2. Land Use History: From Peat Bog to Pine Factory

The modern landscape around Bordeaux is the result of aggressive land conversion going back to the 18th and 19th centuries:

• Historically, this area was wetland and peat bog — soggy ground with naturally high fire resistance when kept wet.
• Napoleon III pushed to drain the swamp and convert it into something “useful”: timber plantations and agriculture.
• The result: a massive shift from wet, fire‑dampening ecosystems to dry, flammable forest plantations.
• While the forest industry has seen major shifts over the past century, these coastal forests also provide a buffer against the harsh, salty ocean breezes. The pine forests are seen as an important protector of the micro-climate conditions which make the Bordeaux region one of the world’s great wine production centers.

That conversion from swamp to pine forest has several consequences for fire:

1. Loss of Wet Buffers
   Peat bogs and wetlands act as fire breaks when they stay wet. Once drained, they become another fuel bed rather than a barrier.
2. Long‑Term Carbon Debt and Smoldering
   The thick organic layer left behind — former peat — is:
   • Deep, carbon‑rich, and
   • Capable of smoldering for long periods once ignited.

   When these layers catch fire, the result is long-duration, hard-to-extinguish peat fires, emitting huge amounts of smoke and carbon until heavy rains arrive.

3. Dependence on Engineered Protection
   Instead of relying on landscape-level resistance (wetlands, diverse vegetation, fragmented fuel), the region has come to depend on:
   • Fire brigades,
   • Aerial firefighting resources,
   • Aggressive suppression.

   That’s a policy choice, not a climate inevitability.

---

3. Monoculture and Flammability: Maritime Pine as a Fuel Type

Maritime pine isn’t just another tree that happens to be flammable; it’s a highly-flammable, fire-adapted conifer with traits that matter for fire behavior:

• Serotinous cones: they open with heat and fire, aiding post‑fire regeneration – burned areas reseed naturally and vigorously in thickets of pine.
• Resinous needles and branches: high energy, volatile fuels.
• Maritime pine (pinus pinaster) are one of the most resinous/flammable trees in the world. This is one of the reasons they were originally chosen for cultivation, here – to support a resin (largely turpentine) industry. Modern chemistry has made it easier to make paint thinner and other solvents out of crude oil, and the resin industry has faded in significance.
• Dense canopy continuity: once the fire is in the crown of the trees, fire can run, and spot over breaks in the fuel like roads or farm fields.

When you plant millions of the same, fire-adapted tree in even-aged stands, at high density, across a nearly unbroken block of landscape, you’re building a regional-scale fire conveyor belt. Under strong winds and low humidity — whether climate change makes those days more common or not — these plantations invite fast, intense fire spread.

Plantation forestry came into vogue in the 1960s and 1970s, and many large North American timber companies worked in concert with major banks and international financial institution to plant millions of acres of trees all over the world, and largely in the Southern Hemisphere. Since then, we have seen very similar wildfire problems to those currently affecting France break out all over the world in conifer and eucalyptus plantations, from Chile and Argentina to New Zealand and Western Oregon.

---

4. Plantation Layout and Urban Edges

The Bordeaux pine block isn’t just a forest; it’s a complex matrix of land-uses:

• Dark green on vegetation maps: conifer plantations.
• Yellow: agricultural fields (e.g., corn).
• Maroon: vineyards, including iconic Bordeaux wine regions.
• Gray: Interspersed: communities, roads, and infrastructure.
• Light yellow: Meadows, prairies
• Current fires in red outline.

Several layout choices increase fire risk and spread potential:

1. Large, Contiguous Blocks of Plantation
   Few breaks, few mosaics, and little structural diversity mean that once a fire escapes initial attack, it can run for kilometers through nearly identical fuel.
2. Limited, Narrow Agricultural Buffers
   While crops (like corn) can sometimes act as fuel breaks, in many places they’re too narrow or poorly aligned with dominant winds to stop a large head fire.
3. Interface with Human Values
   These plantations often sit upwind or adjacent to:
   • Towns and villages,
   • Road corridors,
   • Powerlines,
   • Vineyards and tourism assets.
   • Smoke from fires taints/ruins that year’s vintage of grapes.

   That raises the stakes of every ignition, pushing authorities toward hardline suppression and rapid replanting, rather than rethinking the fuel system.

---

5. The Carbon Credit Economy: Incentivizing the Wrong Forests

Around Bordeaux, many of these pine plantations are also forest carbon projects:

• Project proponents earn carbon credits by claiming:
  “This forest is storing more carbon than would otherwise be stored here.”
• Credits are then sold to polluters or companies aiming to “offset” their carbon emissions.
• International and European frameworks — including financial and development institutions — actively promote plantation forestry as a climate solution.

This creates perverse incentives:

1. Maximizing Carbon, Not Resilience
   Carbon accounting schemes tend to reward:
   • Maximum tree density,
   • Fast-growing species,
   • Monocultures and
   • Large, continuous stands.

   All of those traits align with high fire hazard, not fire resilience.

2. Underfunded Risk Reduction
   The financial math often looks good on paper (millions in potential carbon revenue), but:
   • When spread over large acreages,
   • After profit and transaction costs,
   • There’s not enough left to meaningfully thin, diversify, or treat fuels at scale.
3. Burning the “Climate Solution”
   When fires inevitably run through these plantations, you’re not just losing trees; you’re vaporizing the claimed climate benefit and in some cases turning the project into a net emissions source.

In other words: the carbon market structure is helping to lock in a high-risk, high-fuel landscape, then calling it climate mitigation.

---

6. The “War on Fire”: Suppression Culture and Political Optics

The public narrative in France around these fires leans heavily on war metaphors:

• Firefighters are “fighting a war.”
• They are “killed in combat.”
• Leaders pledge, “We will beat this challenge together,” often framed as a battle to be won with more aircraft, more trucks, more tech.

That framing steers policy in specific, non-climate directions:

1. Militarization Over Mitigation
   The political instinct is to:
   • Buy more super scooper water bombing aircraft,
   • Add more fire engines,
   • Deploy more surveillance and early-warning tools.

   These are all about fighting fire after ignition, not changing the fuels and land use that make these fires so explosive.

2. Replanting as Rapid “Recovery”
   After large fires, there is intense social and political pressure to:
   • Replant as quickly as possible,
   • Restore the visual of a dense green forest that tourists expect.

   That often means re‑establishing the same flammable plantations, rather than seizing the opportunity to:

   • Restore peat bogs,
   • Create more diverse, broken-up forests,
   • Permanently reduce fire intensity around communities through changes in land use.
3. Limited Space for Alternative Strategies
   Messages like “this isn’t a war” or “we need to live with fire” are harder to sell when:
   • Whole economies (tourism, timber, carbon) are tied to the current model,
   • The electorate expects heroic suppression, not nuanced land-use reform.

The result is a feedback loop:
Big fires → war rhetoric → more suppression spending → fast replanting of the same fuels → more big fires.

---

7. Peat, Hydrology, and Carbon Storage Choices

Beneath parts of the Landes Forest lies the ghost of the old peat bog:

• Peatlands, when kept wet, are among the most stable long-term carbon stores on Earth.
• When drained and overlaid with plantations, they:
  • Dry out,
  • Slowly decompose (releasing methane and CO₂),
  • Become vulnerable to deep‑seated ground fires.

Local and international “peat people” — scientists and advocates — argue that if you’re serious about long-term carbon stability and fire risk reduction, you should be re‑wetting and restoring peatlands, not doubling down on pine monocultures.

This is a land-use decision, not a climate inevitability. France can choose to prioritize:

• Short‑term visual greening and timber/carbon revenues, or
• Long‑term carbon stability and lower fire intensity through wetland/peat restoration.

Those choices will shape future fire behavior far more directly than speeches about climate alone.

---

8. Lessons from Other Regions: Fuels and Land Use Matter

The Bordeaux story is not unique. Similar patterns show up in:

• Chile: massive plantation blocks of pine and eucalyptus burning repeatedly.
• Western North America:
  • Dense conifer plantations,
  • Fire‑suppressed forests,
  • Carbon projects burning in California and Oregon.
• Spain:
  • Land abandonment,
  • Loss of traditional grazing,
  • Fuel build‑up in former pastoral landscapes.

Across these places, a few common non‑climate drivers keep appearing:

• Monoculture forestry prioritizing volume over resilience.
• Large, continuous, even-aged stands with minimal breaks.
• Land-use changes (drainage, abandonment, loss of grazing) that increase fuel loads.
• Economic systems that reward maximum standing biomass but underinvest in risk reduction.
• Political and cultural frameworks that frame fire as an enemy to be defeated, not an ecological process to be managed.

Bordeaux is currently on the same trajectory, just at a different latitude and with French branding.

---

9. What Would a Non‑Climate-Centric Response Look Like?

If France wants to meaningfully change fire behavior near Bordeaux — beyond hoping for a cooler planet — it will have to tackle these on-the-ground drivers:

1. Re‑design the Plantation Mosaic
   • Break up large continuous blocks into smaller units.
   • Integrate broad, strategically placed agricultural and hardwood corridors.
   • Reduce density where forests abut communities and key infrastructure.
2. Restore Wetlands and Peat Where Feasible
   • Re‑wet portions of the historic bog.
   • Use peat/wetland areas as landscape-scale fire breaks and carbon banks.
3. Reform Carbon Accounting Rules
   • Stop rewarding high-risk monocultures as “climate solutions” without pricing in fire probability and severity.
   • Incentivize diverse, structurally complex, and fire-resilient landscapes, even if they hold slightly less standing carbon at peak.
4. Shift from Pure War Metaphors to Risk Management
   • Maintain strong suppression capacity, but pair it with:
     • Fuel reduction,
     • Land-use planning,
     • Community hardening and defensible space.
   • Frame success not as “no fires,” but as fires that don’t routinely become regional crises.

---

Conclusion: Not Just Hotter Weather — A Flammable Design

The fires near Bordeaux are not simply acts of an angrier atmosphere. They are burning in:

• A man-made, highly flammable forest,
• Built on drained peatlands,
• Organized as a giant carbon-and-timber factory,
• Embedded in a policy framework that rewards biomass and suppression, not resilience.

Climate change widens the window and increases the impacts of these fires — but the severity of the fire’s outcome is determined by plantations, peat drainage, land use, carbon markets, and political narratives.

Until those non-climate factors are confronted, Bordeaux’s fires will continue to look less like an unavoidable natural disaster and more like the predictable outcome of how the landscape has been engineered.