The Timber Fire, in Big Sur, is opening a new chapter. As fuel conditions dry out, and the fire leaves the area of coastal influence, it is now free to burn east thru the Ventana Wilderness.
9:30pm update
The fire added about 1,000 acres between 5:30pm and 9pm, this evening.
Here is our evening briefing (6pm) for the fire:
The fire had about 1,500 acres of growth, yesterday, and grew another 1,000 acres between the evening of 8/21 and 8/22/2026. Red area mapped at 5:30pm on 8/22/2026. Yellow line shows mapping from around 8pm, on 8/21. Orange area on the maps is the perimeter from evening of 8/20. Light blue fill is 2016 Soberanes Fire.
Seasonal Fuels Conditions
The Energy Release Component (ERC) charts for this area show a seasonal spike/max in fuels flammability for the early part of September. Red line is highest flammability conditions observed over past 25 years, gray line is daily average for the same time period, and blue line is 2026 flammability. The fuels conditions were declining in flammability over the first week of this fire, and are now ramping back up, and forecast to match record levels in the next week.
Weather Forecast
The forecast for upcoming week shows dry conditions and poor overnight humidity recoveries. Conditions are right for the fire to make major slope-driven afternoon runs. The fire will move much more slowly downhill, absent high winds (no extraordinary winds are forecast in the next week), and fire will continue to burn with lower severity on shady, north-facing slopes.
Our Outlook For The Fire
Fuels conditions (flammability) were on a declining trajectory for the first week of this fire, as temperatures and humidities in the fire area remained below seasonal norms (see blue line (2026) on ERC graph, above. Over the past 4-5 days, things have been warming back up and drying out, and we are entering what has traditionally been the 4 weeks of the year with the highest fire hazards for this part of the Central Coast. The fire will continue to grow to the east, making runs when it finds alignment with the fuels and topography, and burning out drainages one by one.
The Timber Fire is about to move into areas which were NOT burned during Soberanes, and where fuel loading is generally much higher and more contiguous. The area outside the Soberanes Fire, around Pine Ridge and down to the Tassajarra Zen Center, last burned in the 2008 Basin Fire.
So far, the fire has been spreading through areas which burned with mixed severities 10 years ago, during the Soberanes Fire. The satellite imagery below shows the severity patterns of the 2016 Soberanes Fire – red areas burned hot, and green areas had vegetation which survived the fire.
Fire crews are prepping firelines along the north and east sides of the Ventana Wilderness which have been used in previous fires, including the 2008 Basin and 2016 Soberanes Fire. This fire may eventually reach these control lines, shown in purple on the map, below. The 2016 Soberanes Fire is shown in blue, with Timber Fire in red, with white outline.
As the fire moves south, it may eventually reach areas burned in the 2021 Dolan Fire, and 2023 Willow Fire. These are shown in dark blue, below. Willow is right under the Tassajara Zen Center. Dolan is on the coast, and lower right.
It is likely that fire crews will need to conduct large-scale defensive firing operations off of the indirect bulldozer lines, out ahead of this fire’s arrival. These firing operations will require cooperative weather conditions to be successful – not too windy, not too moist, not too dry. Threading the needle with large scale firing ops, while still getting appropriate conditions for the fire to burn hot enough to create good ‘black’ – and the large-scale reduction of fuels ahead of the fire’s eventual arrival, is difficult, and requires a combination of patience, experience, choreography, and luck. Wildland firefighting is not an unskilled trade!
Historical Precedents (or not)
Fuels conditions have been milder than they were leading up to, and during the 2016 Soberanes Fire, which happened in the middle of a deep, long-term drought. Here is a comparison of 2016 vs 2026 weather conditions at the Arroyo Seco weather station. The graph below shows drought in California from 2000 to 2026 (Source: PocketRAWs.com)
2016 Weather Data
2026 Weather Data
Wind Rose Data
The Central Coast can get east winds in the autumn. These are a concern for the future movement of the fire, as they could blow the fire back toward more developed areas on the coast. The graphs below show historic wind speed and direction for the next 30 days. Stronger east winds are more common later in September, according to local meteorologists.
