The Timber Fire, in Big Sur, is opening a new chapter. As fuel conditions dry out, and the fire leaves the area of coastal influence, it is now free to burn east thru the Ventana Wilderness.
Here is our morning briefing for the fire:
The fire had about 1,500 acres of growth, yesterday. Orange is perimeter from 8/20. White lines are previous 24 and 48 hr growth. This mapping was from around 8pm, on 8/21. VIIRs satellites show additional growth late into last night, and Chews Ridge webcam shows it burning actively through the night.
The Energy Release Component (ERC) charts for this area show a seasonal spike/max in fuels flammability for the early part of September.
The forecast for upcoming week shows dry conditions and poor overnight humidity recoveries.
Outlook
Fuels conditions (flammability) were on a declining trajectory for the first 2 weeks of this fire, as temperatures and humidities in the fire area were below seasonal norms. Things are warming back up and drying out, and we are entering what has traditionally been the 4 weeks of the year with the highest fire hazards for this part of the Central Coast. The fire will continue to grow to the east, making runs when it finds alignment with the fuels and topography, and burning out drainages one by one.
So far, the fire has been spreading through areas which burned with mixed severities 10 years ago, during the Soberanes Fire. The satellite imagery below shows the severity patterns of the 2016 Soberanes Fire – red areas burned hot, and green areas had vegetation which survived the fire. White outline shows the current extent of the Timber Fire. The purple outline is the extent of the 2016 Soberanes Fire. In the few days, the Timber Fire will move into areas which were NOT burned during Soberanes, and where fuel loading is generally much higher and more contiguous. The green area outside the Soberanes Fire, around Pine Ridge, last burned in the 2008 Basin Fire.
Fire crews are prepping firelines along the north and east sides of the Ventana Wilderness which have been used in previous fires, including the 2008 Basin and 2016 Soberanes Fire. This fire may eventually reach these control lines, shown in purple on the map, below. The 2016 Soberanes Fire is shown in blue, with Timber Fire in red, with white outline.
It is likely that fire crews will need to conduct large-scale defensive firing operations off of the indirect bulldozer lines, out ahead of this fire’s arrival. These firing operations will require cooperative weather conditions to be successful – not too windy, not too moist, not too dry. Threading the needle with large scale firing ops, while still getting appropriate conditions for the fire to burn hot enough to create good ‘black’ – and the large-scale reduction of fuels ahead of the fire’s eventual arrival, is difficult, and requires a combination of patience, experience, choreography, and luck. Wildland firefighting is not an unskilled trade!