Here is a 9/12 afternoon update for the fire. Our initial 9/10 livestream and report are farther down on this page.
Recent Fire Behavior
- As of 4:30, pm, on 9/12, the fire was spreading east, on the NE and SE flanks, with some spotting on the SE corner.
- Most of the rest of the fire perimeter showed little or no spread during the previous 24 to 30 hours.
- Approximately two-thirds of the fire had not spread significantly during the reporting period.
- Most of the north and south flanks had no new growth in 24 hours before noon on 9/12.
- Small areas of growth were noted along Middle Creek, near the Van Ranch,
Remaining Risks
- The fire is actively spreading SE, and this will likely continue through the rest of the afternoon of 9/12.
- Increasing winds were expected through the day, with stronger north winds forecast for Sunday.
- Continued wind increases mean conditions could change. If the fire crosses Elk Mountain Road this afternoon, it could make significant runs to the east.
Red area shows fire at 3:15pm, 9/12/26.
White line is mapping from around 11:30am, 9/12. Yellow line is mapping from afternoon of 9/11. -
View of SE end of fire. Red area shows fire at 3:15pm, 9/12/26.
White line is mapping from around 11:30am, 9/12. Yellow line is mapping from afternoon of 9/11.
New spread on NE corner of fire: Red area shows fire at 3:15pm, 9/12/26.
White line is mapping from around 11:30am, 9/12. Yellow line is mapping from afternoon of 9/11.
Earlier Report:
Our initial livestream for the fire analyzed the Lucas Fire’s location, behavior, weather threats, firefighting tactics, and likely overnight conditions. We were waiting for more detailed intel, during the stream, and we got a perimeter at about 7:40pm, at about minute 39 of the broadcast.
Initial Fire Status
- Our livestream was about 10 hours into the fire.
- We reported that the fire near the Lake County–Mendocino County divide, north of Upper Lake, with early satellite heat detections and limited perimeter information.
- The fire crossed Elk Mountain Road only in one small spot, which was quickly contained.
- The fire initially spread rapidly through grass and brush in the 2018 Ranch Fire area.
- The initial 9/10 evening perimeter estimated approximately 1,100 acres and showed a narrower footprint than expected from the smoke column.
Risks Outlook
- Aircraft focused on flank retardant drops because smoke and terrain limited direct attack on the head of the fire.
- Southwest winds were expected to strengthen before shifting northerly after frontal passage, potentially changing the fire’s direction and increasing competition for resources.
- Cooler, more humid overnight conditions were expected to reduce fire behavior, while dry afternoon conditions could allow renewed activity.
- Open questions: Can crews secure the spot fire near Elk Mountain Road, and will the fire expand before the forecast wind shift?
Initial Fire Behavior
- Rapid afternoon growth, spotting, smoke-column shearing, and possible crossing of Elk Mountain Road.
- Recent burn history from the 2018 Ranch Fire affected fuel conditions and firefighting access.
Firefighting Response
- Cal Fire aircraft mapped the fire perimeter.
- Large air tankers worked the flanks with retardant; helicopters attacked the spot fire.
- Steep terrain, heavy dead and down fuels, snags, and limited visibility complicated direct attack.
Weather Forecast
- Tropical moisture and extreme heat contributed to instability and possible lightning ignition.
- Cooler and more humid overnight conditions were expected, followed by critical afternoon burning conditions.
- Southwest winds were expected to precede a shift toward northerly winds.
Broader Fuel Discussion
- Zeke discussed prescribed burning, recent burn scars, fuel accumulation, and the challenges of protecting structures amid abandoned grow-site debris.